The potential impact of Brexit on the energy, water and food nexus in the UK: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

摘要

Energy is one of the cornerstones essential for human life, along with other services such as water and food.\udUnderstanding how the different services in the energy-water-food (EWF) nexus interact and are perceived by\uddifferent actors is key to achieving sustainability. In this paper, we derive a model of the EWF nexus using fuzzy\udcognitive mapping (FCM). Data were collected in a two-step approach from workshops with researchers and\udstakeholders involved in the three focal sectors. Four FCMs were developed; one for each of the EWF sectors, and\udone for the interactions that create the nexus between EWF. The FCM represents the combined views of the\udgroups who participated in the workshops, the importance and limitations of which is discussed. To demonstrate\udits effectiveness, the aggregated FCM was applied to predict the impacts on the EWF nexus of four scenarios\udunder which the United Kingdom would depart from the European Union (i.e. Brexit). The FCM indicated that\udenergy-related concepts had the largest influence on the EWF nexus and that EWF demand will decrease most\udunder a ‘hard-Brexit’ scenario. The demand for energy was shown to decline relatively less than other services\udand was strongly associated with gross domestic product (GDP), whereas UK population size had a stronger\udeffect on water and food demand. Overall, we found a threefold change across all concepts in scenarios without\udfreedom of movement, contribution to the EU budget, and increased policy devolution to the UK.